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北海道大学大学院　地域気候システム研究室 - Regional Climate System Research Group

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日本
Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido
北海道大学大学院　地域気候システム研究室 - Regional Climate System Research Group

環境科学院の研究室です。身近な自然から地球規模の問題や社会との関わりまで,気象学を駆使して地球環境の様々な問題を研究します！身近な自然から地球規模の問題や社会との関わりまで,気象学を駆使して地球環境の様々な課題を研究します!

07/05/2026

【研究室セミナーのお知らせ】Seminar (16:30-, May. 7, C204-1)
1. Yuji Oda
Title: Investigating the temporal evolution of the structure of polar mesocyclones using the cyclone phase space
2. Hiroto Fukushima
Title: Evaluation of the impact of anthropogenic global warming on downburst events in mid-July 2023 using an analogue-based approach
1. Yuji Oda
Abstract: Polar mesocyclones developing over the sea west of Hokkaido occasionally cause severe snowfall, such as a 24-hour snowfall total of 53 cm, the largest on record for January, observed from 24 to 25 January 2026. These mesoscale cyclones exhibit a variety of physical structures, and thus their development mechanisms are complex. This study focuses on a case in January 2024 to investigate the structural evolution of a polar mesocyclone using cyclone phase space analysis.
2. Hiroto Fukushima
Abstract: Atmospheric instability is projected to worsen in future global warming scenarios, which may increase the likelihood of severe weather events because cumulonimbus clouds favor unstable conditions. Meanwhile, it is poorly understood whether human-induced global warming has increased the risk of such events. This study focuses on multiple downburst events that occurred in the northern Kanto region in mid-July 2023. This presentation will report progress, including the identification of analogue cases based on the classification of synoptic-scale pressure patterns, and preliminary results on the influence of anthropogenic global warming on atmospheric stability in these analogue cases.

30/04/2026

【研究室セミナーのお知らせ】Seminar (16:30-, Apr. 30, C204-1)
1. Kazushi Kikuchi
Title: Evaluation of the impact of global warming on heavy rainfall associated with Baiu front: findings from master's research and future research plans
2. Noa Kashiwazaki
Title: Analysis of the extremely low precipitation in February 2025 in the Tohoku region, Japan, along the Pacific coast as a potential environmental factor for wildfire

1. Kazushi Kikuchi
Abstract: Studies have revealed the contribution of global warming to the recent increase in the frequency of heavy rainfall in Japan. My master's thesis research examined the July 2020 heavy rainfall event in western Japan using an analogue-based event attribution approach. The results showed that global warming intensified heavy precipitation through increased atmospheric water v***r content and enhanced low-level water v***r flux, leading to increased convective instability. I plan to investigate whether such changes in water v***r flux and convective instability represent common responses of heavy precipitation events associated with the Baiu front.
2. Noa Kashiwazaki
Abstract: There has been increasingly impacts of wildfires worldwide. In February 2025, a severe wildfire that lasted for more than a month occurred in Ofunato City, causing extensive damage to forests and residential areas. One possible meteorological factor for this event is the widespread precipitation deficit observed across the Pacific coastal region of the Tohoku region. However, it remains unclear whether this dry condition was caused by natural variability or whether there is any contribution of human-induced climate change. This presentation reports an initial assessment of the low precipitation in February 2025 based on Standardized Precipitation Index using 50 years of AMeDAS observations.

23/04/2026

【研究】
研究室OBの中村さんの論文が4月21日にnpj Climate and Atmospheric Scienceに掲載されました。気象研・北大・名大から日本語プレスリリースも行っており、ABEMAニュースなどで紹介されています。
https://www.hokudai.ac.jp/news/pdf/260422_pr.pdf
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-026-01389-6
https://news.tv-asahi.co.jp/news_society/articles/000500097.htmlNatureInterlinks between sea-ice melting and continental wetting under a changing Arctic moisture transportnpj Climate and Atmospheric Science - Interlinks between sea-ice melting and continental wetting under a changing Arctic moisture transporthttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-026-01389-6テレ朝NEWS北極で進む温暖化　原因の水蒸気は夏と秋に増加　日本の研究チームの解析で判明　北極でも進む温暖化について、気象研究所は温暖化を引き起こす水蒸気が夏と秋に増加するメカニズムを世界で初めて明らかにしたと発表しました。　地球上で最も早く温暖化が進む北極では、気温の上昇が世界平均の2https://news.tv-asahi.co.jp/news_society/articles/000500097.html

23/04/2026

【研究室セミナーのお知らせ】Seminar (16:30-, Apr. 23, C204-1)
1. Takehiro Morioka
Title: Day-to-day atmospheric circulation modulates the impact of marine heatwaves on heatstroke risk in Hokkaido in August 2023
2. Jinyuan Ma
Title: Machine Learning Prediction of Mesoscale Convective Systems Integrating Spatial and Temporal Land Surface Temperature Features: A Regional Comparative Study in East Asia
3. Xukai Liu
Title: About a long-distance fire smoke transport to Hokkaido, Japan

1. Takehiro Morioka
Abstract: High surface air temperature and humidity threaten high-latitude regions that are less adapted to heat. While marine heatwaves (MHWs) have the potential to rise air temperature and humidity over adjacent land areas, the modulation of these impacts by day-to-day atmospheric circulation remains poorly understood. This study focuses on Hokkaido, the northernmost prefecture in Japan, to investigate how daily atmospheric circulation regulates the distribution and intensity of MHW-related heatstroke risk during August 2023, when record numbers of heatstroke patients coincided with severe MHWs. Numerical experiments showed that MHWs increased the monthly-average wet bulb globe temperature by approximately 2 °C in southern coastal areas. Further analysis revealed that variable daily atmospheric circulations and SST patterns play a key role in coastal heatstroke risk on a daily timescale.
2. Jinyuan Ma
Abstract: My research aims to improve the prediction accuracy of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) in East Asia by integrating spatial and temporal Land Surface Temperature (LST) features. After identifying MCS genesis events, the atmospheric and land datasets adjacent to each genesis point, including spatial LST variance from geostationary satellite and atmospheric parameters from ERA5, were extracted. These datasets were then used to train a machine learning framework for MCS prediction. The presentation will report preliminary results obtained using Random Forest model, specifically how LST contributes to predicting convective initiation.
3. Mai Nakazawa
Abstract: This presentation summarizes recent studies on long-distance wildfire smoke transport that affected air pollution in Hokkaido. Based on Yasunari et al. (2018, Sci Rep), basic processes linking early snowmelt, wildfire activity, smoke emission, and eastward transportation will be discussed.

20/04/2026

週末の暖かさで学院前の桜も４割ほど咲きました🌸

先日、新入生歓迎会をいたしました。
春を感じられる料理をいただきながら、会話に花が咲きました。
これからどうぞ宜しくお願いします。

14/04/2026

日差しの力が増し、
北大内に積み上げられた雪ももうほとんどなくなってきました。
あちらこちらにフキノトウが顔を出し、
研究室前の桜の木の蕾もだいぶ膨らんできました。
日当たりの良い一部の蕾からはピンク色の花びらが少し見え始めています。
今週は週末に向かって日増しに暖かくなり、いよいよ札幌にも桜の開花の便りが届きそうです。

14/04/2026

【研究室セミナーのお知らせ】Seminar (16:30-, Apr. 16, C204-1)
1. Satoru Kasuga
Title: Detecting the Coexistence of Japan Sea Polar Air-mass Convergence Zone and a Polar Low
2. Haruka Kobayashi
Title: M1 self-introductions
3. Mai Nakazawa
Title: M1 self-introductions

1. Satoru Kasuga
Abstract: Japan Sea Polar Air-mass Convergence Zone (JPCZ) is a topographically forced convergence line that forms during winter continental cold-airmass outbreaks over the Sea of Japan. The JPCZ is often associated with heavy snowfall from western to eastern Japan, particularly on the windward side of the central mountain range. During the formation of the JPCZ, polar lows (PLs), mesoscale maritime cyclone that develop in cold season, frequently occur to the west of Hokkaido. Past record-breaking snowfall events associated with JPCZ have occurred in the presence of PLs, suggesting that JPCZ and associated snowfall might be intensified when PL coexists. To elucidate the underlying mechanisms, we have developed a method to detect the coexistence of JPCZ and PLs using regional reanalysis data. As a first step, this presentation will report the results of a composite analysis of such coexistence cases based on the updated method.
2. Haruka Kobayashi
Abstract: I'm Haruka Kobayashi, a first-year master's student. I graduated from Hokkaido University, where I majored in chemistry. I'm interested in predicting heavy rainfall disasters and polar weather. Nice to meet you!
3. Mai Nakazawa
Abstract: My name is Mai Nakazawa. I am a first-year master’s student. I graduated from Rakuno Gakuen University, where I majored in meteorology and climatology. During my undergraduate studies, I wrote my bachelor’s thesis on dust devils, which sparked my interest in larger-scale meteorological phenomena such as typhoons and tornadoes. I look forward to working with you all.

06/04/2026

2026.04.03 [お知らせ] 環境起学専攻の小林遥さん、中澤舞さん(修士１年)が研究室に加わりました。
2026.04.03 [Info.] Haruka Kobayashi and Mai Nakazawa (the first year of the master's course) joined our laboratory.

26/03/2026

抜けるような青空の中、昨日、学位記授与式が行われました。
今年度は修士課程の長谷川さん、森田さん、山崎さん、菊池さんが卒業しました。
菊池さんは博士課程へ進まれ、引き続き研究室に在籍されます。
みなさん、これからもどうぞご活躍ください！
本当におめでとうございます！

09/03/2026

2月末に実施した今年度の積雪調査の様子です。
この冬は１月に入ってから何度か強い寒気が入り、そのたびに一気に積雪が増えるドカ雪となりました。
このため21年ぶりに1月の積雪が１ｍを超え、札幌市内を含め交通機関にも大きな影響がでました。
2月に入ると後半に最高気温が10度近くまで上がる暖かい日もあり、一気に雪解けが進み積雪調査のタイミングが難しいなと感じました。
調査では雪氷もみられ、ハンドテストではナイフクラスのしまり雪の層も確認できました。

16/02/2026

【研究室セミナーのお知らせ】Seminar (16:30-, Fwb. 12, C204-1)
1. Xiling Zhou
Title: Impacts of Arctic Sea Ice Loss on East Asian Weather: A preliminary Analysis Based on PAMIP datasets
2. Tomonori Sato
Title: Event attribution of regional extreme weather events during 2025-2026 around North Japan
3. Xukai Liu
Title: Snowmelt Effects on Soil Water Index and Landslide Warnings

1. Xiling Zhou
Abstract: The Arctic has been warming at a rate approximately four times faster than the global mean, and Arctic warming exerts substantial influences on midlatitude weather. This study investigates the responses of past and future Arctic sea ice loss to East Asian weather by analyzing experimental datasets from the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP). This study analyzes model outputs from three experiments (pdSST-piArcSIC, pdSST-pdSIC, and pdSST-futArcSIC) conducted with five models (AWI-CM-1-1-MR, CanESM5, CESM2, HadGEM3-GC31-MM, and IPSL-CM6A-LR). In the experiment prescribed with present-day sea ice concentration (pdSST-pdSIC), among the five models, AWI-CM-1-1-MR demonstrates relatively good skill in simulating the distributions of the East Asian subtropical jet and East Asian precipitation in July. The results of this model indicate that precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin becomes wetter in response to past Arctic sea ice loss, but drier in response to future sea ice loss.
2. Tomonori Sato
Abstract: This presentation reports the background weather conditions that caused extreme events over North Japan during 2025-2026, investigated by analogue-based event attribution approach. Studied events include record-high temperature in July 2025 and heavy snowfall in January 2026.
3. Xukai Liu
Abstract: Current landslide warning system faces challenges to incorporate snowmelt effect. In this presentation, I will briefly introduce the basic concept of soil water index, referring to its observed characteristics during a snowmelt season. I will also explain my research plan.

住所

Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido