23/11/2018
Nearly 40 million diabetics to be left without insulin by 2030, study predicts
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As the number of people with diabetes soars, the growing demand for insulin will result in a shortfall for the drug, CNN has reported, citing findings from a new study.
By 2030, 79 million adults with type 2 diabetes are expected to need insulin to manage their condition and if current levels of access remain, only half of them will be able to be able to get an adequate supply, according to CNN.
The figures were presented in a study published on Wednesday in the journal Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology.
Researchers have warned that better access to insulin needs to be ensured, especially in the African, Asian and Oceania regions, which they predict will be the most affected.
"These estimates suggest that current levels of insulin access are highly inadequate compared to projected need, particularly in Africa and Asia, and more efforts should be devoted to overcoming this looming health challenge," said Dr Sanjay Basu, assistant professor of medicine at Stanford University in the US, who led the research.
"Despite the UN's commitment to treat non-communicable diseases and ensure universal access to drugs for diabetes, across much of the world insulin is scarce and unnecessarily difficult for patients to access."
Basu's team set out to determine the growth rate of diabetes in order to predict the amount of insulin that will be needed and whether everyone who needs it will have access, said CNN.
Their research led to the prediction that, worldwide, the number of adults with type 2 diabetes will rise from 406 million in 2018 to 511 million in 2030. The United States will have the third highest numbers globally, with 32 million people predicted to be living with the condition in 2030.
"The number of adults with type 2 diabetes is expected to rise over the next 12 years due to aging, urbanisation and associated changes in diet and physical activity," said Basu.
Not all diabetics are, however, in need of insulin. Out of 511 million predicted to have the disease by 2030, 79 million will likely be in need of insulin to manage their diabetes. This translates to a 20 per cent rise in demand for the drug, with only 38 million likely to have access to it according to current resources.
Insulin treatment is expensive and the market is currently dominated by three manufacturers, according to the study.
"Unless governments begin initiatives to make insulin available and affordable, then its use is always going to be far from optimal," said Basu.