17/05/2026
Summary of the article “The oil shock”:
The war between the US‑Israel coalition and Iran has caused the largest disruption to oil supply in history due to the closure and blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil and 19% of LNG pass. Gulf countries have been hardest hit, facing infrastructure damage, economic losses, and sharp price hikes on basic commodities as merchants are forced to airlift groceries. Asia’s extreme dependence on Middle Eastern energy (75% of Gulf exports go to Asia) means countries like China, Japan, India, and Pakistan must aggressively revamp their energy mix. Pakistan has seen petrol rise by over 42% and diesel by nearly 55% in recent months, putting pressure on macroeconomic stability under the IMF programme. The business community warns that these prices are paralysing industrial growth. Logistics and transport costs have risen an estimated 20%, affecting every product. Industries using diesel generators face higher production costs, and agriculture relies on diesel for tractors and tubewells while urea fertiliser prices have surged 50‑70%, threatening food inflation. Pakistani exporters are losing competitiveness against regional peers due to high energy tariffs and inland freight costs. Inflation is projected at 9‑13%, and the State Bank is likely to keep interest rates high. At the end of the day, ordinary consumers are paying a huge price due to perpetual policy failure, poor public finance priorities, and elite greed. The article questions whether this time will bring a progressive policy shift towards energy transition and alternative supply sources, or whether old‑school policymaking will continue to lead to economic vulnerability.