07/09/2020
The Deputy Chief Health Officer shared these scenarios yesterday – but I just wanted to explain a bit more about why it’s so important.
This modelling from the University of Melbourne and University of New England shows what’s likely to happen if we eased too quickly, with the numbers too high.
It takes into account the data and current settings we have in place in Victoria – things like case numbers, face coverings, and restrictions.
If we removed the 'Stay at Home' restrictions when daily case numbers were averaging 25, there's more than a 60 per cent chance we'd be back in lockdown by Christmas.
When the stakes are so high, it's a risk we just can't take.
The modelling also shows that if we drive daily numbers down to five before taking the next step – that likelihood drops to just 3 per cent.
I know everyone wants this over as soon as possible. So do I.
But there’s one thing worse than having restrictions in place – and that’s coming out too fast.
Having two weeks of fun. Case numbers explode. And then you’re straight back into lockdown.
Yo-yoing in and out, with businesses opening and closing, is just about the worst scenario possible.
All our sacrifices would count for nothing.
And we simply can't allow that to happen.
