01/06/2026
Congratulations to IES research fellow Dr Adam Piovarchy who has been awarded a AU$180,000 research grant from the Philosophy, Politics, and Economics Society!
The project investigates the ethical, political, and epistemic dimensions of modern ‘prediction markets’: markets that yield payments based on the outcome of an uncertain future event, which have recently been legalised in the US. By allowing people to profit from correctly predicting what will happen, prediction markets aggregate evidence about a topic to arrive at a ‘price’ that reflects how confident we collectively ought to be in a certain answer, in order to improve forecasting and decision-making. They have significant potential to improve our epistemic commons, but they also generate risks, namely that of providing perversive incentives to make certain outcomes occur.
Well done, Adam! We look forward to discussing this important work with you as the project develops.
The Ethics, Epistemology, and Politics of Predictions Markets Team Member(s): Dan Weijers (University of Waikato) This project investigates the ethical, political, and epistemic dimensions of…