University of Tartu Ukraine Centre - UTUC

University of Tartu Ukraine Centre - UTUC We support Ukraine’s reconstruction, development, and European integration

A summary of the 06-12.07.2026 international relations updates by the security expert Rainer Saks:06.07.2026The Russian ...
13/07/2026

A summary of the 06-12.07.2026 international relations updates by the security expert Rainer Saks:

06.07.2026

The Russian army carried out a large-scale attack using ballistic and cruise missiles on Kyiv. As the NATO summit in Ankara is about to begin, with assistance to Ukraine also on the agenda, the attack appears to have been timed with this event in mind. The Ukrainian president is also attending the NATO summit as a guest.

07.07.2026

Ukrainian officials reported that the Ukrainian army has run out of PAC-3 missiles, which enable Patriot systems to intercept Russian ballistic missiles. From the Russian army’s perspective, this is an opportunity it will certainly try to exploit to the fullest.

08.07.2026

At the NATO summit in Ankara, several decisions were made with the participation of the President of Ukraine to support the development of Ukraine’s defence industry. No major political statements have been made so far. Iran’s new military attacks, to which the United States responded forcefully, will certainly dilute the summit’s messages.

The petrol crisis in Russia continues. The government is trying to build a logistics system under the new circumstances, and it is partly able to deliver petrol and diesel by tanker trucks. However, sales restrictions remain in force, which also keeps the longer queues in place.

09.07.2026

After the Iranian attacks, the U.S. president announced that the ceasefire had ended and that attacks on Iran would resume. In addition, the naval blockade of Iranian ports is expected to resume.

As part of the NATO summit, a bilateral meeting also took place between the U.S. president and the Ukrainian president. During the meeting, President Trump stated that Ukraine would receive a license to produce missiles for Patriot air defence systems, while the U.S. would begin purchasing drones from Ukraine.

10.07.2026

Ukrainian strikes have taken up to 40% of Russia's oil-refining capacity out of operation. Very long queues at petrol stations have become common, while fuel sales restrictions have been introduced in most Russian regions. As Ukrainian attacks have also seriously disrupted Russian logistics, the problems caused by shortages in motor-fuel production have been significantly exacerbated.

In this timely episode of the Ukraine Podcast UTUC, Dmytro Khutkyy speaks with Lesia Ogryzko, Co-founder and Director of...
01/07/2026

In this timely episode of the Ukraine Podcast UTUC, Dmytro Khutkyy speaks with Lesia Ogryzko, Co-founder and Director of the Sahaidachnyi Security Center, about Ukraine’s indispensable role in Europe’s security. We discuss how Russia’s war extends beyond the battlefield through hybrid threats, sabotage, cyber-attacks, and disinformation; what Baltic, Nordic, and other European countries can learn from Ukraine’s battlefield experience; and why resilience, rapid defence innovation, mass mobilisation, and a whole-of-society approach are central to democratic survival. The conversation also considers what Ukraine’s partners must do to help secure a Ukrainian victory and build a more credible European defence architecture. Above all, Lesia Ogryzko argues that Europe must replace complacency with strategic preparation and recognise Ukraine as both a frontline defender and a source of practical security expertise.
The Spotify link is in comments below.

How does war reshape a nation’s civic identity? And what happens to social and political divisions in times of existenti...
24/06/2026

How does war reshape a nation’s civic identity? And what happens to social and political divisions in times of existential crisis?

These were among the key questions explored by UTUC Research Fellow Alex Kolesnikov at the IPSA Research Committees Colloquium “Minorities under Siege? Plural Societies Facing Plural Challenges” in Bolzano/Bozen, Italy.

He presented the paper “Forged by War: The Dynamics of Civic Identity and Sociopolitical Cleavages in Ukraine,” which examines how Russia’s war against Ukraine is transforming civic identity and reshaping patterns of social cohesion and division. The research explores evolving sociopolitical cleavages and their potential implications for Ukraine’s future political landscape, while contributing to a broader understanding of how wars and crises transform plural societies.

The paper was co-authored with Dmytro Khutkyy, Olga Matveieva, and Vasil Navumau and forms part of the research project “Transformation of Sociopolitical Cleavages in Ukrainian Society in the Context of the War,” conducted at the University of Tartu with support from the Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs / Välisministeerium under targeted grant agreement No. 6.2-7/605.

Many thanks also to Grace Tovkach and Daria Ahafonova for the insane work with data collection!

The Estonian part of our educational STRIDE programme for young professionals from Eastern Partnership countries culmina...
09/06/2026

The Estonian part of our educational STRIDE programme for young professionals from Eastern Partnership countries culminated with the visit to E-Governance Academy with a captivating interactive lecture about the realities of introducing digital governance by Annela Kiirats. The participants are on their way to Stockholm to learn from Swedish experts and design their own mini-projects of responsible digital transformation. We were happy to have here in Estonia--have a fantastic discovery and co-creating journey!

A summary of the 01-07.06.2026 international relations updates by the security expert Rainer Saks:01.06.2026In a CBS New...
07/06/2026

A summary of the 01-07.06.2026 international relations updates by the security expert Rainer Saks:

01.06.2026

In a CBS News interview, the Ukrainian president said a window for negotiations with Russia remains open until the beginning of winter. According to him, the Russian army began gradually losing the initiative on the front lines from December 2025. The president also expressed support for Europe’s involvement in these potential negotiations.

03.06.2026

The Russian presidential administration’s spokesperson announced that Russia could end the war if Ukraine withdrew its forces from territories Russia considers to belong to Russia. The fact that this message was delivered immediately after a major missile attack shows that Russia is seeking to make maximum use of the attack’s impact in the information space.

04.06.2026

The NATO Secretary General visited Kyiv, where the NATO–Ukraine Council met. As expected, military aid and new deliveries of air defence missiles were discussed.

The Ukrainian president announced his willingness to meet with the Russian president and called for a quick restart of peace negotiations. According to him, only the United States can influence Russia to enter negotiations, but Ukraine also considers the participation of European representatives in the talks necessary.

According to Bloomberg, three countries — Germany, the United Kingdom and France — are drawing up a joint plan for negotiations with Russia. The Ukrainian president also named joint representation by the E3 countries as one possible way to involve Europe in the talks.

05.06.2026

The Ukrainian president published a letter to the Russian president proposing a meeting in a third country and halting hostilities. The purpose of the letter is rather to neutralise Russia’s information manipulations regarding peace talks. The Ukrainian president wants to show that the Russian president was the person who decided to launch aggression against Ukraine, but now does not wish to take personal responsibility for stopping the war.

The Russian president was speaking with journalists in St Petersburg and tried to convince everyone that the Russian army is doing excellently, that Russian air defence is working, and that a real “Oreshnik” strike has not yet been carried out.

06.06.2026

The Russian president announced that he saw no point in meeting personally with the Ukrainian president in order to engage in empty talk. He tried to leave the impression that the Ukrainian president was seeking an opportunity to meet with him through several channels. The Russian leader's phrasing indicated that he still fully believes in the Russian army's victory.

A naval drone exploded in the Romanian port of Constanța. The Ukrainian Navy later acknowledged that it was a Ukrainian drone which, during an operation, lost contact with its operators as a result of Russian electronic interference and later ended up in the area of Romania’s port.

We are delighted to launch the on-site part of our STRIDE programme - at the Political Science - University of Tartu and...
07/06/2026

We are delighted to launch the on-site part of our STRIDE programme - at the Political Science - University of Tartu and University of Tartu Ukraine Centre - UTUC in Estonia!
The Strengthening Trust, Resilience, and Institutions of Digital Democracy in Europe programme, funded by the Swedish Institute, aims to empower early to mid-career professionals in public administration, policymaking, and civil society in Eastern Partnership countries to drive democratic change. The programme focuses on democratic governance, digital transformation, and leadership, offering insights from Sweden and Estonia.
Warm welcome to participants: ​Abbas Ramazanov, Anastasia Donska, Anastasiia Oleksiuk, Arpine Baghdoyan, Giorgi Inalishvili, Khrystyna Syrota, Mariam kvariani, Martin Aghajanyan, Mihaela Melnic, Murad Aghazada, Nika Bolkvadze, Olena Kuvaieva, Taguhi Hovhannisyan, Tatevik Azizyan, Valeriia Melnyk, Vladislav Branitchi, and Zaruhi Simonyan.
The in-person programme is implemented by Mariana Gustafsson and Niklas Hamström of Linköpings universitet as well as Dmytro Khutkyy, Kerli Klock and Tom Pritchard of the University of Tartu.

Congratulations Tornike Goglidze with the successful defence of MA thesis! The research "Digital Adaptive Governance: Th...
05/06/2026

Congratulations Tornike Goglidze with the successful defence of MA thesis! The research "Digital Adaptive Governance: The Response to the Wartime Crises in Ukraine" was conducted under the supervision of Dmytro Khutkyy. The study examined Ukraine's immense crisis resilience and contributed to the scholarship on both digital and adaptive governance. Open access text will be available online soon.

A summary of the 25-31.05.2026 international relations updates by the security expert Rainer Saks:25.05.2026The Russian ...
31/05/2026

A summary of the 25-31.05.2026 international relations updates by the security expert Rainer Saks:

25.05.2026

The Russian army used 90 different missiles in yesterday’s air attack on Ukraine, which was one of the largest single attacks on the Ukrainian capital. The Oreshnik missile that fell near Kyiv caused minimal damage, and its use primarily serves to influence the media.

28.05.2026

The commander of Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps, Major General Biletskyi, argued that Ukraine could achieve a breakthrough in the war within the next 6–9 months. In his opinion, during that period, it would be possible to fully exhaust the Russian army and seize the initiative on the fronts.

29.05.2026

The EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Kaja Kallas, stated that Europe cannot act as a neutral mediator in peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. She also noted that Europe’s greatest challenge is to agree on a common position, without which there is no point in expecting any results from the negotiations.

The Russian president was on a visit to Kazakhstan. The culmination of the visit was the signing of a joint project to build a new nuclear power plant. Russia is trying to preserve its influence in Central Asia, and the new nuclear power plant project is therefore a notable achievement.

The Ukrainian president arrived on a visit to Sweden, where the transfer of Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine was announced. According to the Swedish prime minister, the first used fighter jets will be handed over at the beginning of next year, while the purchase deal will be realised by 2030.

30.05.2026

The Russian drone has fallen on an apartment building in the Romanian city of Galati, causing minimal damage. However, Romanian ministers explained their decision not to shoot down the drone, stating that there was insufficient time to react and that they currently face several legal restrictions on responding to such attacks. Later, the Romanian President announced that, in response to this accident, Russia’s consulate in Constanța would be closed.

At the Eurasian Economic Union summit in Kazakhstan, other member states, led by Russia, demanded that Armenia make a clear choice between the EU and the EEU. They also called for a referendum in Armenia on this issue. At the same time, there were threats to examine ways to expel Armenia from the Eurasian Union if the current government's policy continues.

31.05.2026

The U.S. Secretary of Defence said a few words in recognition of Ukraine’s military innovation and announced that the United States intends to increase production of weapons intended for Ukraine. He also stated that European partners are under continuous pressure to assume greater responsibility for supporting Ukraine.

A summary of the 18-24.05.2026 international relations updates by the security expert Rainer Saks:18.05.2026Information ...
24/05/2026

A summary of the 18-24.05.2026 international relations updates by the security expert Rainer Saks:

18.05.2026

Information about Ukrainian drone attacks in Moscow was widely shared on Russian social media. Although this was Ukraine’s most extensive air attack on the Moscow region so far, Russian social media and general media coverage made the attack appear even larger.

19.05.2026

According to Al Arabiya, Iran has conveyed a proposal to the United States via Pakistan under which the Iranian government would agree to transfer 400 kg of enriched uranium to Russia for storage and to freeze its nuclear weapons programme. So far, the U.S. has demanded that all uranium be handed over to the US.

20.05.2026

The Russian army has begun “planned” nuclear forces exercises. There is no doubt that they have been timed to create a backdrop for the Russian president’s visit to the PRC. In a broader sense, these exercises are intended to bolster Russia’s strategic deterrence.

21.05.2026

The Russian media outlet Dossier Centre has published a strategy document prepared by insiders in the Russian presidential administration. In summary, the aim of this strategy would be to shape the information environment and narratives to entrench among Russian citizens the perception that Russia defeated the collective West in its war of aggression against Ukraine.

The Russian president’s visit to the People’s Republic of China was planned primarily as a balancing message to the U.S. president’s state visit. The most important outcome of the visit was the joint political declaration, which states that, over recent decades, global development has become more diversified and lists the principles which, in the view of the two countries, should guide international relations.

22.05.2026

Ukraine’s foreign minister was in Sweden at a meeting of NATO foreign ministers and used the opportunity created by Russia to comment on the situation. According to him, the war is approaching a turning point, where the Ukrainian army is able to hold its defence, is increasing pressure on Moscow, and Russia’s greater human resources are losing their impact on the situation at the front.

23.05.2026

The U.S. Secretary of State announced at the NATO foreign ministers' meeting that the United States has suspended its participation in the trilateral negotiations with Russia and Ukraine. He explained the decision simply by saying that the negotiations had produced no results.

A summary of the 11-17.05.2026 international relations updates by the security expert Rainer Saks:12.05.2026The Ukrainia...
17/05/2026

A summary of the 11-17.05.2026 international relations updates by the security expert Rainer Saks:

12.05.2026

The Ukrainian Foreign Minister stated that Europe could act as a mediator between Ukraine and Russia in negotiations aimed at reaching a mutual agreement to end attacks on civilian airports. According to him, such negotiations would give European diplomats a concrete role in the diplomatic process.

The German Defence Minister arrived in Ukraine for a visit. The main aim was to accelerate cooperation between the Ukrainian and German defence industries. Germany has joined a new programme to develop drones with a range of up to 1,500 km.

13.05.2026

The Belarusian leader announced that targeted mobilisations will begin in the country. Instead of the large nationwide training call-ups practised so far, combat training for individual units will be carried out, with reservists mobilised to man them.

14.05.2026

Several Ukrainian spokespersons have repeatedly stated in the media that the parade scheduled for 9 May on Moscow’s Red Square may be cancelled. The reason cited is the fear among the Russian army and officials that Ukraine could carry out a large-scale air attack on it.

15.05.2026

The Russian media outlet Dossier Centre has published a strategy document prepared by insiders in the Russian presidential administration. In summary, the aim of this strategy would be to shape the information environment and narratives in order to entrench among Russian citizens the perception that Russia defeated the collective West in its war of aggression against Ukraine.

16.05.2026

In Chisinau, the final decision to establish a special tribunal for the crime of aggression against Ukraine was signed. The signatories included 34 countries, and there is now an agreement to launch the special tribunal.

The Russian president signed a decree simplifying the process of acquiring Russian citizenship for residents of the Transnistria region. The move is intended to serve as a political counterweight to the Moldovan government’s more active efforts to reintegrate Transnistria into Moldova.

17.05.2026

The Chinese Foreign Minister stated that both China and the United States want an end to the fighting in Ukraine and are ready to act constructively towards that goal. However, the minister still referred to the war in Ukraine as the “Ukraine crisis”, indicating that China has not fundamentally changed its previous position on this issue.

Ukrainian spokespeople continue to speak about the Belarus issue, citing Russia’s attempts to involve Belarus in the war. It was stated that a belt of fortifications has been built along the Belarusian border zone. So far, there are no signs of either Russian or Belarusian units being concentrated in Belarus.

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