20/08/2026
Dr. Renier Mendoza, Dr. Rhudaina Mohammad, and Dr. Arrianne Crystal Velasco of the Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing Group, UP Diliman Institute of Mathematics, together with Ken Matthew Oliva, simulated how ash from Taal Volcano moves through the atmosphere.
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When Taal Volcano erupted in 2020, it released large amounts of volcanic ash that spread to nearby areas. Because volcanic ash can pose risks to peopleโs health, disrupt transportation, and damage agriculture and infrastructure, it is important to anticipate how ash will disperse during eruptions and where it could potentially fall to ensure safety and minimize damage.
Ken Matthew Oliva, Dr. Reinier Mendoza, Dr. Rhudaina Mohammad, and Dr. Arrianne Crystal Velasco of the UP Diliman Institute of Mathematics and the UP Diliman Natural Sciences Research Institute simulated how ash from Taal Volcano moves through the atmosphere. They estimated the diffusion rate (the rate at which ash spreads) using three approaches. First, they established a baseline through multiple simulations, then used the least squares method to fit the numerical solution to ash concentration profiles. While this worked well with clean data, the method became less accurate when 5% noise was added, highlighting the sensitivity of the inverse estimation process to measurement uncertainty. Finally, they proposed a third method using satellite brightness temperature data, which produced diffusion estimates consistent with the baseline simulations. The resulting diffusion rate can help predict the trajectory and extent of ash dispersion.
Link to the study: https://philjournalsci.dost.gov.ph/modeling-the-dispersion-of-taal-volcanic-ash-using-the-advection-diffusion-equation/
Science Flash is an initiative of the College of Science that aims to summarize recent studies by our scientists. For interview requests and other media inquiries, please contact media(at)science.upd.edu.ph.
When Taal Volcano erupted in 2020, it released large amounts of volcanic ash that spread to nearby areas. Because volcanic ash can pose risks to peopleโs health, disrupt transportation, and damage agriculture and infrastructure, it is important to anticipate how ash will disperse during eruptions and where it could potentially fall to ensure safety and minimize damage.
Ken Matthew Oliva, Dr. Reinier Mendoza, Dr. Rhudaina Mohammad, and Dr. Arrianne Crystal Velasco of the UP Diliman Institute of Mathematics and the UP Diliman Natural Sciences Research Institute simulated how ash from Taal Volcano moves through the atmosphere. They estimated the diffusion rate (the rate at which ash spreads) using three approaches. First, they established a baseline through multiple simulations, then used the least squares method to fit the numerical solution to ash concentration profiles. While this worked well with clean data, the method became less accurate when 5% noise was added, highlighting the sensitivity of the inverse estimation process to measurement uncertainty. Finally, they proposed a third method using satellite brightness temperature data, which produced diffusion estimates consistent with the baseline simulations. The resulting diffusion rate can help predict the trajectory and extent of ash dispersion.
Link to the study: https://philjournalsci.dost.gov.ph/modeling-the-dispersion-of-taal-volcanic-ash-using-the-advection-diffusion-equation/
Science Flash is an initiative of the College of Science that aims to summarize recent studies by our scientists. For interview requests and other media inquiries, please contact media(at)science.upd.edu.ph.
