28/05/2026
UP Diliman Department of Political Science Professor Alicor L. Panao and Assistant Professor Ranjit S. Rye have published a new study challenging a common assumption in international politics—that people either support or oppose powerful countries in a straightforward manner. Their work introduces the concept of "instrumental ambivalence," which captures the more layered and nuanced ways ordinary citizens think about foreign powers.
Using evidence from the Philippines, the study identifies a striking pattern in public opinion toward China. The findings show that when Filipinos are more satisfied with how the government handles maritime disputes in the West Philippine Sea, they tend to view China as less reliable in the short term. This reflects greater confidence in domestic leadership and in the government’s ability to manage tensions effectively.
At the same time, however, these same individuals become more open to long-term cooperation with China. Rather than producing simple approval or rejection, confidence in government appears to separate immediate security concerns from future strategic possibilities. This allows citizens to remain cautious about present risks while still recognizing potential gains from future engagement.
The broader implication of the study is that public opinion in foreign policy is more flexible and complex than often assumed. Citizens are not simply pro- or anti-China; instead, they can simultaneously hold caution and openness depending on how they evaluate their government’s performance.
The study is published in the Australian Journal of International Affairs, a leading peer-reviewed journal in international relations and foreign policy indexed in the Web of Science Social Sciences Citation Index, with an impact factor of 2.7.
Access the article here: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10357718.2026.2674171
