10/08/2026
We are proud to share the publication of a new paper, "Bridging foresight and transition theory: policy mixes for transforming Europe's food systems," in the European Journal of Futures Studies Research, co-authored by our MARETEC (LARSyS, Instituto Superior Técnico) researcher Ricardo da Silva Vieira, together with Ullrich Lorenz, Minna Kaljonen, and Henrik Larsen.
The paper develops a novel framework combining participatory foresight, the X-curve transition model, and morphological analysis to design coherent policy-mix pathways for food system transformation. Four stylised policy mixes are developed in the article, making visible the range of internally coherent governance philosophies for European food systems.
The analysis reveals that the EU's current policy framework is only loosely aligned with any of the four coherent pathways, exposing a lack of internal coherence. Furthermore, while all pathways require deliberate phase‑out processes that will unevenly affect farmers, rural communities, and consumers, existing instruments provide only fragmented support - falling short of the comprehensive, forward‑looking framework needed to anticipate and manage these impacts.
This work offers a replicable methodology for designing internally consistent policy mixes under complexity - relevant for food systems and sustainability transitions more broadly.
Read the full article here: https://doi.org/10.1186/s40309-026-00284-w
