23/04/2026
Employment rate among people with foreign backgrounds in Sweden is higher than previously calculated. This is according to a new model for population estimates which has now been applied to Swedish register data. The study also shows that fertility and mortality estimates for migrants should be adjusted.
Statistics Sweden’s calculations of the population size are based on a model which retrieves information from different registers. If individuals who are deceased or have left the country appear active in some of the registers, the model interprets this as a so-called sign of life, and includes said individuals in the statistics.
“Their method is deterministic. You are either here or not; it is either one or zero. There is no in-between. But our model calculates the probability of being in the country”, says Eleonora Mussino, one of the researchers who have developed and tested the new model.
Since the model is based on probabilities, it gives estimates that are closer to reality. After developing the method, the researchers have now applied it to Swedish registers for the period 2003–16.
The study has resulted in numbers that differ from the calculations conducted by Statistics Sweden. Because people who have left the country are still counted in the population, rates calculated from uncorrected figures are systematically too low. After correction by the new model, the employment rate among immigrants turns out to be higher than previously estimated. The fertility rate is also higher. Additionally, mortality rates increase after correction, especially at older ages, likely because some migrants die abroad without their deaths being recorded in Swedish registers.
Eleonora Mussino explains that correct estimates are important for the public discourse. If the assumption is that more people are in the country than is actually the case, it might lead to policy decisions based on a misleading picture.
“From that perspective, it is important to have correct information about the population”, says Eleonora Mussino.
The Study "Invisible emigrants: A research note on over-coverage bias from unrecorded migrant departures in socio-demographic rates and summary measures" is published in Population Studies.
