10/15/2026
📢 New publication from our PhD student!
When the last US forces left Erbil on Sept. 30, did Iraqi Kurdistan become safer, or more exposed?
In a new piece for The Conversation, CRHSGG PhD student Firmesk O. Rahim argues the withdrawal creates a paradox. Without American troops, the region may become a less attractive target for Iran and its allied militias. But it also loses the air and missile protection that helped it absorb more than 1,000 drone and missile attacks since February. A real question arises: "Which disappears faster: the threats or the protection?"
Among her key insights:
🔹 The Peshmerga were unified under a single command just days before the withdrawal, a historic milestone. But ground forces can’t stop drones, and Kurdistan now depends on a national Iraqi air-defense system that isn’t fully operational yet.
🔹 Sovereignty isn’t the same as security. Baghdad has pushed its deadline for bringing armed groups under state control to June 2027, which exposes the gap between formal sovereignty and effective control.
🔹 The US-Kurdish partnership is entering a new phase. Diplomacy, investment, and economic ties may now matter more than a military presence. The next few months will be telling. If attacks drop, the US presence was a driver of instability. If they don’t, Kurdish leaders’ worst fears are confirmed.
Congratulations, Firmesk! 👏
Read the full article:
The region may become less of a target for groups seeking to pressure the United States. But the Kurds also have less security support now, should they need it.