11/21/2025
🚨 Now Published: Middle Power Case Study Reports
As the international system undergoes dramatic change, most of the world’s attention stays locked on the sharp competition between the U.S. and China. But focusing only on the great-power rivalry misses a bigger story: a growing group of influential “Middle Powers” that are rising in prominence and potential, challenging the idea of a unipolar or bipolar international system.
Harvard’s Belfer Center at Harvard Kennedy School—together with the Harvard Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation—is interrogating this trend through the Middle Powers Project.
The first round of publications from the project include original studies by seasoned authors specializing in their country’s history, geopolitics, and politics: academics and practitioners who have each characterized how their country stands amidst great power competition, and how they may influence the coming era. This includes:
🌎 Brazil, which is seeking global reach through multi-alignment among major powers, but its room for maneuver—and its influence in its own region—faces real limits.
🌎 India, which must pursue a delicate balancing act to leverage its heft without becoming dependent on, or antagonistic toward, any major powers—a particular challenge as U.S. policies shift.
🌏 Indonesia, which must boost its strategic dynamism to convert its geography and other resources into real influence over global issues and U.S.-China competition.
🌏 South Africa, host of the G20 summit this weekend and a committed member of the BRICS, which faces challenges in modernizing its economy as it seeks to maintain regional leadership and trade links with both Global North and Global South. 🌏 Turkey, a NATO member, which seeks strategic autonomy and new ties with China and others, but its ability to pivot away from its traditional Western orientation remains incomplete.
Explore the Middle Powers Project, read the case studies, and learn more via the Belfer Center website.
