08/11/2026
More than 80 countries face chronic drought, yet only a third have systems to act before a drought arrives rather than after. The cost of waiting is immense: the UN Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that every dollar invested in anticipatory action can save up to seven dollars in averted losses, while protecting lives and livelihoods before crisis conditions take hold.
Two students in Harvard’s Master in Design Engineering (MDE) program, Mitul Iyengar and Luke Fiorante (MDE ’26), set out to understand why more countries don’t act early—and what it would take to change that.
Their research took them to Mozambique, home to one of the world’s most advanced government-led drought anticipatory action systems. There, they mapped the full path from seasonal forecast to decision, speaking with more than 100 meteorologists, disaster managers, data scientists, and humanitarian practitioners.
Their core insight: the hardest part isn’t predicting drought. It’s deciding when a forecast is strong enough to justify action. Move too early and you risk mobilizing resources for a rainy season that turns out fine. Wait for certainty and the window to act closes.
The key is a trigger: the threshold at which forecasted risk becomes a decision to act. In Mozambique, that trigger is set collectively by a national technical working group spanning meteorology, disaster management, agriculture, water resources, and humanitarian agencies. The group analyzes decades of climate data and tests hundreds of thousands of thresholds against 25 years of drought history.
But this process largely lived in spreadsheets, scripts, and the working memory of a few experts—rigorous, but hard to see, teach, or replicate.
Iyengar and Fiorante’s answer is Ground State: a platform that turns trigger calibration from a specialist-dependent exercise into a repeatable workflow that national meteorological services can run independently.
Ground State builds on peer-reviewed methods developed by the World Food Programme and Mozambique’s National Institute of Meteorology (INAM), and surfaces them through an interactive map of a country’s own drought history. With a drag of a threshold slider, an analyst can instantly see which droughts would have been caught, which would have been missed, and where false alarms would have occurred—district by district, year by year.
The platform carries teams through the full annual cycle of calibration, in-season monitoring, and after-season review. It runs on a single machine, requires no cloud infrastructure, and is being prepared for release as open-source software so governments can inspect every line and fully own the system.
Iyengar and Fiorante co-designed Ground State with INAM meteorologists in Mozambique and analytics teams at the World Food Programme in Rome, and they are now in discussions to pilot the tool in new districts in the coming drought season. https://bit.ly/4g0IWG8