10/02/2026
π LABEL ECON 693 Seminar Series
Today, we had the pleasure of welcoming Ned Augenblick (UC Berkeley) for a discussion on how people form beliefs about a complex world.
We often rely on simplifying assumptions to make predictions. But what happens when different people choose different plausible models?
His research shows how this can lead to both overprecision, meaning underestimating uncertainty, and disagreement, as people arrive at different predictions. In an experiment, participants viewed scatterplots and estimated outcomes beyond the displayed data. Similar patterns appeared in the Survey of Professional Forecasters.
Our confidence in a prediction can depend on assumptions we may not even realize we are making.
π Thank you to our speaker and to everyone who joined us for the seminar!