farmdoc Daily

10/29/2026

THE 45Z BIOFUEL TAX CREDIT, PART 4: INSIDE THE UPDATED USDA FEEDSTOCK CARBON INTENSITY CALCULATOR

USDA recently released an updated version of its Feedstock Intensity Calculator (FD-CIC) for the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit. The updated FD-CIC differs from the previous version in ways that matter for producers. It is field-specific, and each enrolled field needs its actual yield, expected (APH) yield and nitrogen rate. Each field receives its own Carbon Intensity (CI) score. The largest reductions come from soil-carbon practices, whose values are set by region, while nitrogen use per bushel is the part of the score that responds to the field’s own records. Location still matters, and every field’s score is reported against the same national reference point. Notably, in the current version, crop yield and other field inputs, enter the CI calculation only through nitrogen-per-bushel calculations. As such, only the fertilizer-related terms respond to crop yields and producers should not expect their CI score to fall in proportion to yield increases.

Read more: https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/10/the-45z-biofuel-tax-credit-part-4-inside-the-updated-usda-feedstock-carbon-intensity-calculator.html

10/28/2026

THE 2026 ARC/PLC DECISION: ARC-CO VS. PLC

The commodity program decision deadline for program crops harvested in 2026 is Dec. 11, 2026. Current projections and expectations for prices and yields suggest that ARC-CO would be expected to trigger larger payments than PLC on corn and soybean base acres in most counties. The comparison for wheat base acres is currently much closer and will depend on county yield expectations and the individual farm’s PLC yields. The November WASDE report will provide updated price projections for the 2026 marketing year and could shift expectations for potential payments. USDA’s November crop production report, also scheduled for release on November 10, will provide updated state level yield and production estimates which, along with farm-level yield experience, can be helpful to inform county level yield expectations.

Read more: https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/10/the-2026-arc-plc-decision-arc-co-vs-plc.html

10/27/2026

US-MEXICO CATTLE TRADE AND BEEF MARKETS

Mexico exported feeder cattle to the US until New World Screwworm (NWS) caused officials to stop this flow in 2025. Given the partial reopening in effect now, there is uncertainty about the level of live trade going forward. We estimate the impacts on the US and Mexico going from baseline projections where live trade returns to pre-entry levels to an alternative case with less live trade. As expected, the shortfall in US supplies leads to higher feeder cattle, fed cattle, and beef prices, although US producer response moderates these impacts over time. The animals do not vanish but instead lead to greater beef production in Mexico. The beef trade impacts are more net imports into the US and more net exports from Mexico. Overall, the sector loses some efficiency as we see less total production at a higher price.

Read more: https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/10/us-mexico-cattle-trade-and-beef-markets.html

10/27/2026

Combines were rolling nonstop last week! 🚜🌾 With 6.6 days suitable for fieldwork in Illinois, soybean harvest jumped to 81% complete and corn harvest reached 74%—putting both crops ahead of their 5-year averages! Across the Midwest, Minnesota is nearly done with beans at 93%, while Iowa and South Dakota are still playing catch-up on corn.

lear skies gave Midwest farmers over 6 days suitable for fieldwork ...

10/26/2026

THE US NO LOSS CROP SECTOR SAFETY NET

Recent US crop safety net policy has been operated to eliminate field crop sector losses. It is thus hard to argue that the US field crop sector is in financial distress. Yes, individual farms are under stress and going bankrupt. But profitability always varies across farms, with some operating at a loss while others earn a profit. Moreover, the variation can be substantial, with some incurring large losses or earning large profits. Thus, if the sector is covering all costs, more than a few farms, maybe even a majority, are making money, and some are likely making lots of money. Farmers making money are usually quiet. A safety net that eliminates field crop sector losses reinforces the importance of the question raised in the farmdoc daily of Feb. 5, 2026, has the US crop safety net become excessive? Sector losses may be distasteful but are important in a market economy.

Read more: https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/10/the-us-no-loss-crop-sector-safety-net.html

10/23/2026

CONSERVATION POLICY: THE BASELINE SHUFFLE AND TRADEOFFS IN THE BARDO

Supporters of conservation policy are justified in thinking that they must play by a different set of rules, especially when it comes to program spending and budget matters. First and foremost, conservation programs are explicitly capped or limited by Congress, unlike farm program payments or crop insurance which have no budgetary limits. From the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, to the One Big Beautiful Bill (OB3) Act and the unfinished Farm Bills, conservation’s are also the only policies that appear to be required to abide by standard budget rules — new policy must cannibalize existing conservation policy through internal spending offsets. In OB3, Congress also broke the cardinal political rule of the Farm Bill coalition, cutting food assistance to offset increases to farm program payments and crop insurance, but conservation had to cut its own funding to build long-term (or outyear) baseline.

Read more: https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/10/conservation-policy-the-baseline-shuffle-and-tradeoffs-in-the-bardo.html

10/22/2026

The December 11th deadline for the 2026 ARC/PLC decision is sneaking up fast! 🗓️

If you're still weighing your options between ARC-CO, ARC-IC, and PLC for your corn, soybeans, or wheat base acres, we've got you covered. In our latest webinar, Nick Paulson and Henrique Monaco break down the recent OBBBA changes, review the record 2025 payments, and walk through our decision tools to help you make the best choice for your farm operation.

With the December 11, 2026 deadline approaching, it’s time to make ...

10/22/2026

2026 ILLINOIS FARM ECONOMICS SUMMITS

The 2026 Illinois Farm Economics Summits from farmdoc Daily return this December to update producers on the current state of the Midwest farm economy and discuss the challenges and opportunities currently facing farmers.

The summits are being held on:
- Monday, Dec. 14 in Mt. Vernon
- Tuesday, Dec. 15 in Sherman
- Wednesday, Dec. 16 in Peoria
- Thursday, Dec. 17 in Dekalb

Register to attend here (registration includes breakfast pastries and lunch): https://farmdoc.illinois.edu/ifes

10/22/2026

MIXING POLITICS AND PERCEPTIONS OF AI AND DATA CENTERS: RESULTS FROM THE GARDNER FOOD & AGRICULTURAL POLICY SURVEY

Given the scale of current and planned investments in AI infrastructure, public concern about data center development may persist beyond the 2026 election cycle. Over the course of this year, Gardner Food and Agricultural Policy Survey results highlight that concern about electricity costs, water use, and the conversion of agricultural land is shared across the political spectrum. While Republicans tend to be somewhat more optimistic about the potential benefits of data center development, that optimism does not fully offset broader concerns about its impacts. These findings are broadly consistent with other national surveys and polling that document increasing skepticism toward data center development and growing opposition to new facilities in local communities. As a result, AI and the infrastructure that supports it will likely remain important topics in public debate and policymaking long after the midterm elections.

Read more: https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/10/mixing-politics-and-perceptions-of-ai-and-data-centers-results-from-the-gardner-food-agricultural-policy-survey.html

10/21/2026

DIESEL FUEL PRICE IMPACT ON FUEL & OIL AND PER-ACRE MACHINERY COSTS

Diesel fuel prices for agricultural use in Illinois have reached a record high. Those higher prices are estimated to raise fuel and oil costs on Central Illinois grain farms with high land productivity to $28 per acre for corn and $24 per acre for soybeans, up $6 and $5 per acre, respectively, from 2025 costs. These costs remain a small share of total non-land production costs, and current Illinois crop budgets already reflect most of the increases. We also estimate fuel surcharges which may be applied for custom machinery operations. Surcharges range from $1.60 to $5.70 per acre for tillage operations.

Read more: https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/10/diesel-fuel-price-impact-on-fuel-oil-and-per-acre-machinery-costs.html